The African aviation industry is showing signs of recovery with fleet size projected to grow by 25% to over 1,400 aircraft by 2034, according to Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast. The largest growth is projected to occur between 2029 and 2034, with a CAGR of 2.7%. For example, South African Airways has announced plans to expand its fleet to approximately 40 aircraft over the next decade, from just 13 today. This growth reflects increasing demand, with African passenger numbers expected to nearly double by 2035, as reported by the International Air Transport Association. 

But the sector faces significant hurdles in its recovery. The Covid-19 pandemic caused a six-year setback in industry growth globally, with several African airlines folding and the continent’s aviation sector losing $7.7bn in revenue in 2020 alone. Investment challenges include inflation, skilled labour shortages, and rising costs. Despite these obstacles, experts remain cautiously optimistic. André Martins of Oliver Wyman notes that easing inflation and potential interest rate reductions could facilitate crucial investments in the future.

In the second quarter of 2024, the African aviation industry continued to show resilience and growth, navigating economic challenges and seizing opportunities. Airlines across the continent sustained their recovery, driven by a steady increase in passenger demand according to the African Airlines Association (AFRAA).

The total seat availability in Global Africa saw a notable 6% increase, rising from 15 million seats in June 2023 to 16 million seats in June 2024. Intra-Africa routes experienced a modest 0.5% rise in seat availability, attributed to new route introductions, network expansions, and fleet upgrades. Additionally, Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) for June 2024 surpassed June 2023 levels by 11%, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) showed a 5.8% year-over-year increase.

African carriers claimed 49.6% of international capacity and 37.0% of intercontinental capacity. The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) estimates a 15% growth in passenger traffic for African airlines in 2024 compared to 2023. On international routes, AFRAA predicts a capacity split of 49.6% for African carriers and 50.4% for non-African carriers. For intercontinental routes, African carriers hold 37.0% of the capacity, while non-African carriers dominate with 63.0%.

Connectivity within Africa continues to expand, with major hubs such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Abidjan, and Lomé seeing significant increases in connections. African airlines are reporting improved passenger revenue, reflecting the overall traffic growth. AFRAA data indicates that passenger revenue in April 2024 reached $1.70 billion, up 2% from $1.66 billion in April 2023. The global price of Jet A1 fuel continues to fluctuate, ending the week of June 21, 2024, up 3.2% at $103.16 per barrel.

Ethiopian Airlines was founded in 1945 and has made strides in the aviation industry, and is the 4th largest in the world in terms of serviced destinations. Beyond its operations, the airline has also been helping other African national carriers. It revived and owns a 49% stake in Malawi Airlines and a 45% stake in Zambia Airways and has announced plans to help re-launch a new airline in Mozambique. It’s planning to establish smaller regional bases in Djibouti, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea. It already operates hubs in Malawi and Togo.

The African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) has developed model economic regulations aimed at harmonizing regulations across the continent. These regulations cover economic licensing for scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services and allied services such as ground handling and catering. The regulations mandate financial monitoring and operational data submission for domestic airlines, ensuring transparency and efficiency. They also provide economic oversight of airports and air navigation service providers (ANSPs), emphasizing consumer protection through passenger rights and compensation guidelines. AFCAC validated these regulations in Lomé, Togo, from June 26-28 and in Kigali, Rwanda, from July 1-3, with AFRAA submitting the proposed regulations.

A survey conducted by AFRAA in the first half of 2024 revealed that several countries have yet to fully liberalize and implement the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), as evidenced by the denial of Fifth Freedom Rights. AFRAA plans to coordinate with AFCAC to facilitate the granting of these freedoms. The survey also identified political goodwill and reciprocity as significant hindrances to full SAATM implementation. Additionally, certain taxes and charges increase operational costs, prompting AFRAA to advocate for necessary petitions and encourage measures such as fleet modernization, free routing airspace, and participation in carbon offset programs for environmental sustainability.

According to Airspace Africa, Namibia’s proposal to remove visa-free entry for citizens of 31 countries is expected to negatively impact tourism, business travel, and economic growth. In contrast, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe plan to introduce a single tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, allowing entry to all five countries for a short period. Zambia and Zimbabwe have already started implementing the “UniVisa” for entry to both countries and short stays in Botswana.

Nigeria is launching a new e-visa system with electronic gates at major airports to streamline visa applications as per Nigeria Visa Policy 2020. Togo and São Tomé and Príncipe have signed an agreement for visa-free travel between their citizens, aiming to enhance movement and connectivity between the two West African nations.

Two studies conducted by Airbus and Boeing highlighted the need to address restrictive bilateral agreements, airline capacity challenges, and high operating costs to improve interconnectivity on the African continent. Despite Nigeria releasing almost 98% of the funds that were blocked in the country, the continent continues to grapple with blocked funds. AFRAA’s Task Force on Blocked Funds will engage with relevant government offices to facilitate the unblocking of these airline funds. 

A key factor in the growth of the aviation industry on the continent is that Africa is becoming an increasingly appealing investment destination. As the population grows and the continent’s middle class expands, continental and global investors increase their trip frequency to explore opportunities. Aviation is due to be a massive beneficiary of Africa’s population and economic growth. The African aviation sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability, navigating challenges and seizing opportunities for growth and connectivity across the continent. 

The fight against climate change has led to the rise of sustainable mobility. Thus, countries must harness renewable energy and increase the demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Some of Africa’s main trading partners have banned internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035. Already, there are pilot projects for sustainable vehicles in Rwanda, South Africa, and Egypt. Furthermore, E-mobility startups have emerged across the continent. 
 
According to government projections, there will be about 6,000 electric automobiles in SA in 2020 (both fully electric and hybrid). The country is also exploring the possibility of manufacturing EVs, with the first fully manufactured EV expected to be ready by 2026, according to the trade minister. Naamsa (the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa) expects at least 8 new EV products to be introduced in the country in 2024.
 
Morocco’s EV fleet included more than 10,000 hybrid vehicles in 2022, according to ‘Société Nationale des Autoroutes du Maroc’, Morocco’s national authority for the management of expressways. Like South Africa, Morocco boasts a vibrant vehicle manufacturing industry, including world-renowned car makers such as Renault and Stellantis. The country is targeting the production of 1 million cars of all types by 2025. Part of the plan is to have EVs represent up to 60% of car exports by 2030. Ongoing investments in battery manufacturing could expedite these ambitions.
 
Statistics by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority released in April 2024 show the number of EV registrations stood at 3753 as of 2023. Between July and December 2023, 2694 new EVs were registered, thanks to wide-ranging incentives implemented last year. While the number of fully electric four-wheelers is still low (less than 500), according to Afema, increasing investor activity by companies such as BasiGo and Roam promises to increase the numbers. Kenya recently unveiled its first Electric Mobility (e-mobility) Draft Policy, which outlines policy guidelines in the sector as it pursues a target of having 5% of all vehicle registrations in the country be electric by 2025.
Tanzania has grown into one of the biggest electric vehicle markets in Africa, with electric two- and three-wheelers being the dominant category on the country’s roads. A 2023 report by the Africa emobility alliance estimated the number of EVs in Tanzania at 5000 vehicles. While the number of electric four-wheelers remains low, there are still a few recent entries from major dealers, including the Tesla Model S, Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, and BMW i3.
 
Angola has one of the highest numbers of electric four-wheelers in Africa, with estimates by the Africa Emobility Alliance showing up to 1000 electric four-wheelers. Policies introduced in 2022 offer import and vehicle tax reductions until 2032. The country is developing a strategic plan for electro-mobility to accelerate growth in the sector. A 2023 report by CVE Angola, an EV company, shows an additional two thousand EV imports from the United States in 2024.
 
According to government data, approximately 17,000 electric vehicles, including 2 and 3-wheelers, are currently registered in the country. Ghana also boasts one of the largest EV four-wheeler fleets in Africa, with about 1,000 tracked in the Africa e-mobility alliance’s 2023 report. In the 2023/24 Budget Speech, the Minister for Finance and Economic Planning unveiled Ghana’s ambitious strategy to boost the EV sector. This includes waiving import duties on EVs for 8 years, starting in 2024. This initiative also includes exemptions on import duties for semi-knocked down and completely knocked down EVs imported by registered assembly companies and an extension of VAT exemptions on locally assembled vehicles for 2 more years.
 
In 2022, UNEP reported nearly 900 electric vehicles, including motorcycles and three-wheelers, zipping around Rwanda. That number is on the rise, driven by supportive government policies fueling a boom in EV-related businesses. Notably, Tesla has entered the Rwandan scene with its Model Y, joining players like BYD from China. The arrival of Kenyan startup BasiGo further underscores Rwanda’s commitment to electrifying transportation. Afema notes that Rwanda currently boasts 1,182 two and three-wheelers.
 
Multiple estimates from industry professionals suggest there were between 3500 and 4000 EVs in Egypt in 2023, almost double the 1,000 to 1,800 in 2021. According to Afema, the number of four-wheeler EVs is still modest, estimated at about 380 as of 2023. 155 of these were electric buses deployed when the country hosted COP 27. The government has an ambitious plan to encourage local EV production, with up to 100,000 units targeted in a few years. To meet this, the government plans to cover up to 35% of the costs per unit of EV produced locally to encourage the local industry.
 
According to estimates from Cleantechnica.com, as of 2023, there were some 5,000 to 7,000 electric vehicles on the roads of Ethiopia, with the sector experiencing significant growth thanks to government incentives. The incentives include VAT, surtax, and excise tax exemptions for all EVs and customs duty tax exemptions for completely knocked-down kits. The Ministry of Transport and Logistics aims to import a minimum of 4,800 electric buses and 148,000 electric automobiles over the next decade, part of a plan to accelerate EV adoption in the country.
 
Africa boasts key raw materials for modern vehicles that require new technologies to reach net zero. They include copper, cobalt, bauxite and lithium. In addition, there is also a huge market for electric motorcycles in Africa, especially in West, East and North Africa. This widens opportunities for utilizing domestically produced inputs in new markets by leveraging AfCFTA preferences.

Industry Leaders

Ethiopia Airlines is Africa’s largest airline in terms of passengers carried, destinations served, fleet size, and revenue. Ethiopian is also the world’s 4th largest airline by the number of countries served. South Africa’s place among African nations leading in aviation is because 21 airlines call on the nation’s international hub OR Tambo International Airport. However, at the time of writing, its national carrier is under business rescue. EgyptAir is the second-largest airline on the African continent. The airline is headquartered at Cairo International Airport, its main hub. It operates scheduled passenger and freight services to more than 75 destinations in the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Egyptair is a member of Star Alliance and the Arab Air Carriers Organization.

Industry leaders

Ethiopia

Ethiopia

Egypt

Egypt

South Africa

South Africa

Aviation Associations in Africa

African Business Aviation Association (AfBAA)
African Airline Association